Home > Store

Moods and Markets: A New Way to Invest in Good Times and in Bad

Register your product to gain access to bonus material or receive a coupon.

Moods and Markets: A New Way to Invest in Good Times and in Bad


  • Sorry, this book is no longer in print.
Not for Sale



Map social moods to emerging market shifts and identify profit opportunities long before other traders and investors do.

  • Master the exclusive two-step "Horizon Preference" approach to investment analysis: a faster, simpler, more effective alternative to "Elliott Wave" theory
  • Discover how social moods can be quantified -- and how they powerfully impact the investment landscape
  • Gain new insights into everything from "why market bubbles happen" to "why mergers are so hard to execute"


  • Copyright 2013
  • Dimensions: 6" x 9"
  • Edition: 1st
  • Book
  • ISBN-10: 0-13-294721-8
  • ISBN-13: 978-0-13-294721-3

Leading consultant and Minyanville contributor Peter Atwater has helped institutional investors, corporations and policymakers map changing social moods to emerging market shifts, and use that knowledge to identify huge new market opportunities.  Now, Atwater shows you how to use the same powerful Horizon PreferenceTM approach to select your own high-performance investments.   Utilizing what is often in plain sight, but overlooked and underestimated, Horizon Preference helps you understand how we narrow our physical, time and relationship horizons to the "local" in bad times, and widen them to the "global" in better times – and then translate that knowledge into better investment decisions.  Atwater’s Moods and Markets offers powerful new insights into everything from market bubbles to the real challenges of making mergers work… why "farm to table" and "locavore" movements are booming now, and what’s likely to happen next… why Americans now want to rent homes even though it’s become far more affordable to buy them… why the "Arab Spring" is bullish, and higher education is in deep trouble… which businesses prosper in a downturn, which prosper most in an upturn – and why. This book will be an invaluable resource for every serious investor, trader, and money manager.


Author's Site

Author suggested site: www.financial-insyghts.com.

Companion Site

A link from Moods and Markets: A New Way to Invest in Good Times and in Bad can be found here: www.financial-insyghts.com.

Sample Content

Online Sample Chapter

Moods and Markets: A New Way to Invest in Good Times and in Bad

Sample Pages

Download the sample pages (includes Chapter 1 and Index)

Table of Contents

Foreword     xix

Introduction     1

Chapter 1 Understanding Social Mood     11

Mood Defined     12

Mood Versus Emotion     14

Confidence and Our Perceptions of Certainty     15

The Continuum of Social Mood     20

Individual Versus Social Mood     24

Measuring Mood     25

Social Mood and the Media     28

Mood Groups     31

Final Thoughts     32

Chapter 2 Horizon Preference: How Mood Affects Our Decision Making     33

The Horizon Preference Continuum     35

Logical Decision Making in Periods of Rising Social Mood     39

Logical Decision Making in Periods of Falling Social Mood     45

Opportunities During Declining Social Mood     50

Final Thoughts     52

Chapter 3 Market Peaks and All the Red Flags They Wave     55

The Concept Stock Bubble     56

Big Truths     58

Abdication of Risk Management     59

Organizational Complexity     61

Novice and Naïve Entrants     62

Credit, Architecture, and Other Signs of the Top     63

Why Investment Peaks Are Different     68

After the Peak     70

Final Thoughts     71

Chapter 4 A Social Mood Journey Back Through the Housing Bubble    73

Modern Housing Finance     75

A Big Truth     78

Abdication of Risk Management     78

Organizational Complexity     80

Novice and Naïve Entrants     82

Excessive Credit and Architecture     83

Final Thoughts     84

Chapter 5 Is Higher Education a Bubble?     85

A Big Truth     85

Abdication of Risk Management     88

Organizational Complexity     91

Naïve and Novice Participants     91

Excessive Credit     92

Architecture     93

Final Thoughts     95

Chapter 6 Signs of a Bottom in Social Mood     99

Extreme “Me, Here, Now” Behaviors     100

Hoarding Behaviors     101

Acts of Sacrifice     104

Event Versus Cycle Lows      108

The Market Low of 2002     109

The Market Low of March 2009      110

The Market Bottom of 1932     112

Seeing Major Market Bottoms in Real Time     113

Social Mood and Invention     115

Final Thoughts     120

Chapter 7 Cooking the Books: Corporate Earnings and Social Mood     121

Mood-Driven Accounting Principles     122

Mood-Driven Management Judgment     125

Mood-Driven “One Time” Charges     130

Final Thoughts     133

Chapter 8 Social Mood and the Markets Today: So Where Are We?     135

Modern Day Extremes in Social Mood     139

Communication and Transportation Innovations and Peaks in Social Mood     141

2000 to 2012: Deteriorating Mood     142

Plotting Social Mood     145

A Long-Term Perspective on Social Mood and Stock Multiples     148

Social Mood and the Evolution of Major Corporations     150

Peak Social Mood and Sovereign Debt     154

Final Thoughts     156

Chapter 9 Using Horizon Preference No Matter Your Long-Term View     159

Final Thoughts     166

Chapter 10 Final Thoughts     169

Bibliography     171

Index     175


Submit Errata

More Information

InformIT Promotional Mailings & Special Offers

I would like to receive exclusive offers and hear about products from InformIT and its family of brands. I can unsubscribe at any time.


Pearson Education, Inc., 221 River Street, Hoboken, New Jersey 07030, (Pearson) presents this site to provide information about products and services that can be purchased through this site.

This privacy notice provides an overview of our commitment to privacy and describes how we collect, protect, use and share personal information collected through this site. Please note that other Pearson websites and online products and services have their own separate privacy policies.

Collection and Use of Information

To conduct business and deliver products and services, Pearson collects and uses personal information in several ways in connection with this site, including:

Questions and Inquiries

For inquiries and questions, we collect the inquiry or question, together with name, contact details (email address, phone number and mailing address) and any other additional information voluntarily submitted to us through a Contact Us form or an email. We use this information to address the inquiry and respond to the question.

Online Store

For orders and purchases placed through our online store on this site, we collect order details, name, institution name and address (if applicable), email address, phone number, shipping and billing addresses, credit/debit card information, shipping options and any instructions. We use this information to complete transactions, fulfill orders, communicate with individuals placing orders or visiting the online store, and for related purposes.


Pearson may offer opportunities to provide feedback or participate in surveys, including surveys evaluating Pearson products, services or sites. Participation is voluntary. Pearson collects information requested in the survey questions and uses the information to evaluate, support, maintain and improve products, services or sites, develop new products and services, conduct educational research and for other purposes specified in the survey.

Contests and Drawings

Occasionally, we may sponsor a contest or drawing. Participation is optional. Pearson collects name, contact information and other information specified on the entry form for the contest or drawing to conduct the contest or drawing. Pearson may collect additional personal information from the winners of a contest or drawing in order to award the prize and for tax reporting purposes, as required by law.


If you have elected to receive email newsletters or promotional mailings and special offers but want to unsubscribe, simply email information@informit.com.

Service Announcements

On rare occasions it is necessary to send out a strictly service related announcement. For instance, if our service is temporarily suspended for maintenance we might send users an email. Generally, users may not opt-out of these communications, though they can deactivate their account information. However, these communications are not promotional in nature.

Customer Service

We communicate with users on a regular basis to provide requested services and in regard to issues relating to their account we reply via email or phone in accordance with the users' wishes when a user submits their information through our Contact Us form.

Other Collection and Use of Information

Application and System Logs

Pearson automatically collects log data to help ensure the delivery, availability and security of this site. Log data may include technical information about how a user or visitor connected to this site, such as browser type, type of computer/device, operating system, internet service provider and IP address. We use this information for support purposes and to monitor the health of the site, identify problems, improve service, detect unauthorized access and fraudulent activity, prevent and respond to security incidents and appropriately scale computing resources.

Web Analytics

Pearson may use third party web trend analytical services, including Google Analytics, to collect visitor information, such as IP addresses, browser types, referring pages, pages visited and time spent on a particular site. While these analytical services collect and report information on an anonymous basis, they may use cookies to gather web trend information. The information gathered may enable Pearson (but not the third party web trend services) to link information with application and system log data. Pearson uses this information for system administration and to identify problems, improve service, detect unauthorized access and fraudulent activity, prevent and respond to security incidents, appropriately scale computing resources and otherwise support and deliver this site and its services.

Cookies and Related Technologies

This site uses cookies and similar technologies to personalize content, measure traffic patterns, control security, track use and access of information on this site, and provide interest-based messages and advertising. Users can manage and block the use of cookies through their browser. Disabling or blocking certain cookies may limit the functionality of this site.

Do Not Track

This site currently does not respond to Do Not Track signals.


Pearson uses appropriate physical, administrative and technical security measures to protect personal information from unauthorized access, use and disclosure.


This site is not directed to children under the age of 13.


Pearson may send or direct marketing communications to users, provided that

  • Pearson will not use personal information collected or processed as a K-12 school service provider for the purpose of directed or targeted advertising.
  • Such marketing is consistent with applicable law and Pearson's legal obligations.
  • Pearson will not knowingly direct or send marketing communications to an individual who has expressed a preference not to receive marketing.
  • Where required by applicable law, express or implied consent to marketing exists and has not been withdrawn.

Pearson may provide personal information to a third party service provider on a restricted basis to provide marketing solely on behalf of Pearson or an affiliate or customer for whom Pearson is a service provider. Marketing preferences may be changed at any time.

Correcting/Updating Personal Information

If a user's personally identifiable information changes (such as your postal address or email address), we provide a way to correct or update that user's personal data provided to us. This can be done on the Account page. If a user no longer desires our service and desires to delete his or her account, please contact us at customer-service@informit.com and we will process the deletion of a user's account.


Users can always make an informed choice as to whether they should proceed with certain services offered by InformIT. If you choose to remove yourself from our mailing list(s) simply visit the following page and uncheck any communication you no longer want to receive: www.informit.com/u.aspx.

Sale of Personal Information

Pearson does not rent or sell personal information in exchange for any payment of money.

While Pearson does not sell personal information, as defined in Nevada law, Nevada residents may email a request for no sale of their personal information to NevadaDesignatedRequest@pearson.com.

Supplemental Privacy Statement for California Residents

California residents should read our Supplemental privacy statement for California residents in conjunction with this Privacy Notice. The Supplemental privacy statement for California residents explains Pearson's commitment to comply with California law and applies to personal information of California residents collected in connection with this site and the Services.

Sharing and Disclosure

Pearson may disclose personal information, as follows:

  • As required by law.
  • With the consent of the individual (or their parent, if the individual is a minor)
  • In response to a subpoena, court order or legal process, to the extent permitted or required by law
  • To protect the security and safety of individuals, data, assets and systems, consistent with applicable law
  • In connection the sale, joint venture or other transfer of some or all of its company or assets, subject to the provisions of this Privacy Notice
  • To investigate or address actual or suspected fraud or other illegal activities
  • To exercise its legal rights, including enforcement of the Terms of Use for this site or another contract
  • To affiliated Pearson companies and other companies and organizations who perform work for Pearson and are obligated to protect the privacy of personal information consistent with this Privacy Notice
  • To a school, organization, company or government agency, where Pearson collects or processes the personal information in a school setting or on behalf of such organization, company or government agency.


This web site contains links to other sites. Please be aware that we are not responsible for the privacy practices of such other sites. We encourage our users to be aware when they leave our site and to read the privacy statements of each and every web site that collects Personal Information. This privacy statement applies solely to information collected by this web site.

Requests and Contact

Please contact us about this Privacy Notice or if you have any requests or questions relating to the privacy of your personal information.

Changes to this Privacy Notice

We may revise this Privacy Notice through an updated posting. We will identify the effective date of the revision in the posting. Often, updates are made to provide greater clarity or to comply with changes in regulatory requirements. If the updates involve material changes to the collection, protection, use or disclosure of Personal Information, Pearson will provide notice of the change through a conspicuous notice on this site or other appropriate way. Continued use of the site after the effective date of a posted revision evidences acceptance. Please contact us if you have questions or concerns about the Privacy Notice or any objection to any revisions.

Last Update: November 17, 2020