Home > Articles > Business & Management > Finance & Investing

The Nature of Trading in Volatile Times

When the next market shock happens, you likely will have only moments to react. Will you be ready?
This chapter is from the book
  • “You always need a catalyst to make big things happen.”
  • —Jim Rogers1

The market is losing $718 million per second. The clock is ticking. Millions—no, billions—down the drain. Your positions are getting eviscerated. Down, down, down. What should I do? What can I do? What is going on?

This is not a scenario out of a movie—it really happened during the Flash Crash of May 6, 2010. Considering the complexity of the modern market, it is a matter of when, not if, it will happen again.

In a market where high-frequency traders (HFTs) account for 84% of U.S. stock trading volume, how can you make money?2 In a world of uncertainty, how can you minimize risk and maximize profits?

What moves stock prices? What moves the overall stock market? How can you profit, given the catalysts precipitating sudden sharp changes in stock prices? This book answers these questions and more. It is filled with numerous real-life examples to illustrate both the potential profit opportunities and risks that market shocks induce. From the actions of corporate executives to the rulings of regulators, from earnings announcements to merger deals, from lawsuits to settlements, from macroeconomic reports to government policy actions, and from elections to terrorist actions, Shock Markets takes you inside the market to understand what happens and why. This includes analysis of the market during fads and fashions, bubbles and crashes, and market crises. It also explains how to create and implement a solid trading game plan.

Why Study Market Shocks?

Market shocks illuminate reactions in the market to news. Studying past market shocks is key to understanding and reacting to future market shocks. When the next shock happens, you likely will have only moments to react. Will you be ready?

The analysis of market shocks enables you to isolate the market’s reaction to a specific news event. Moreover, the analysis of the market reaction to a specific news event provides clues to the trading themes driving the market.

Financial markets can be tranquil or turbulent. Both are characterized by periodic shocks. Shocks create risks as well as profit opportunities. Extreme price moves are more common than you might expect. Numerous sources of shocks exist. How markets react to shocks contains important lessons for market participants. Many successful traders argue that they make most of their profits from only a handful of trades each year. Gradual profits (or losses) arise from riding a trend. However, quick profits (or losses) arise from sudden, sharp shocks to market prices. That’s why understanding market shocks is so important.

Individual stocks are more volatile than the market as a whole. What might constitute a market crash (down 20% or more), or a major rally, can occur in a single day for individual stocks. This means both risk (for those unprepared) and opportunity (for those who have prepared to take advantage of market shocks).

Market shocks can be small, or extraordinarily large. Take the example of Medbox, a company that creates medical marijuana dispensing machines. In mid-November 2012, after several voter referendums sought to legalize marijuana at the state level, it saw its share price rise 3,000%,3 surging from a market capitalization of $45 million to up to $2.3 billion.4 Although the stock surge from $4 to $215 was transitory, the price remained significantly elevated from $4, spending the month after the shock trading between $20 and $100.

Market shocks happen every day. Although this book includes some examples from the more distant past, the focus is on more recent examples for two reasons. First, the reactions to a given shock may change over time, so recent examples give traders a better idea of the likely market reaction than older examples. Second, recent examples are more likely to be both relevant to and more easily understood by today’s trader. The examples considered are by necessity illustrative rather than exhaustive.

In today’s globally connected world, shocks in one country can spill over and spread across the world. Capital flows easily and quickly around the world. Still, the U.S. represents 45% of world equity value and is a prime candidate for study.5 This book includes examples of shocks from around the world, although many of the examples involve U.S. traded firms.

InformIT Promotional Mailings & Special Offers

I would like to receive exclusive offers and hear about products from InformIT and its family of brands. I can unsubscribe at any time.

Overview


Pearson Education, Inc., 221 River Street, Hoboken, New Jersey 07030, (Pearson) presents this site to provide information about products and services that can be purchased through this site.

This privacy notice provides an overview of our commitment to privacy and describes how we collect, protect, use and share personal information collected through this site. Please note that other Pearson websites and online products and services have their own separate privacy policies.

Collection and Use of Information


To conduct business and deliver products and services, Pearson collects and uses personal information in several ways in connection with this site, including:

Questions and Inquiries

For inquiries and questions, we collect the inquiry or question, together with name, contact details (email address, phone number and mailing address) and any other additional information voluntarily submitted to us through a Contact Us form or an email. We use this information to address the inquiry and respond to the question.

Online Store

For orders and purchases placed through our online store on this site, we collect order details, name, institution name and address (if applicable), email address, phone number, shipping and billing addresses, credit/debit card information, shipping options and any instructions. We use this information to complete transactions, fulfill orders, communicate with individuals placing orders or visiting the online store, and for related purposes.

Surveys

Pearson may offer opportunities to provide feedback or participate in surveys, including surveys evaluating Pearson products, services or sites. Participation is voluntary. Pearson collects information requested in the survey questions and uses the information to evaluate, support, maintain and improve products, services or sites, develop new products and services, conduct educational research and for other purposes specified in the survey.

Contests and Drawings

Occasionally, we may sponsor a contest or drawing. Participation is optional. Pearson collects name, contact information and other information specified on the entry form for the contest or drawing to conduct the contest or drawing. Pearson may collect additional personal information from the winners of a contest or drawing in order to award the prize and for tax reporting purposes, as required by law.

Newsletters

If you have elected to receive email newsletters or promotional mailings and special offers but want to unsubscribe, simply email information@informit.com.

Service Announcements

On rare occasions it is necessary to send out a strictly service related announcement. For instance, if our service is temporarily suspended for maintenance we might send users an email. Generally, users may not opt-out of these communications, though they can deactivate their account information. However, these communications are not promotional in nature.

Customer Service

We communicate with users on a regular basis to provide requested services and in regard to issues relating to their account we reply via email or phone in accordance with the users' wishes when a user submits their information through our Contact Us form.

Other Collection and Use of Information


Application and System Logs

Pearson automatically collects log data to help ensure the delivery, availability and security of this site. Log data may include technical information about how a user or visitor connected to this site, such as browser type, type of computer/device, operating system, internet service provider and IP address. We use this information for support purposes and to monitor the health of the site, identify problems, improve service, detect unauthorized access and fraudulent activity, prevent and respond to security incidents and appropriately scale computing resources.

Web Analytics

Pearson may use third party web trend analytical services, including Google Analytics, to collect visitor information, such as IP addresses, browser types, referring pages, pages visited and time spent on a particular site. While these analytical services collect and report information on an anonymous basis, they may use cookies to gather web trend information. The information gathered may enable Pearson (but not the third party web trend services) to link information with application and system log data. Pearson uses this information for system administration and to identify problems, improve service, detect unauthorized access and fraudulent activity, prevent and respond to security incidents, appropriately scale computing resources and otherwise support and deliver this site and its services.

Cookies and Related Technologies

This site uses cookies and similar technologies to personalize content, measure traffic patterns, control security, track use and access of information on this site, and provide interest-based messages and advertising. Users can manage and block the use of cookies through their browser. Disabling or blocking certain cookies may limit the functionality of this site.

Do Not Track

This site currently does not respond to Do Not Track signals.

Security


Pearson uses appropriate physical, administrative and technical security measures to protect personal information from unauthorized access, use and disclosure.

Children


This site is not directed to children under the age of 13.

Marketing


Pearson may send or direct marketing communications to users, provided that

  • Pearson will not use personal information collected or processed as a K-12 school service provider for the purpose of directed or targeted advertising.
  • Such marketing is consistent with applicable law and Pearson's legal obligations.
  • Pearson will not knowingly direct or send marketing communications to an individual who has expressed a preference not to receive marketing.
  • Where required by applicable law, express or implied consent to marketing exists and has not been withdrawn.

Pearson may provide personal information to a third party service provider on a restricted basis to provide marketing solely on behalf of Pearson or an affiliate or customer for whom Pearson is a service provider. Marketing preferences may be changed at any time.

Correcting/Updating Personal Information


If a user's personally identifiable information changes (such as your postal address or email address), we provide a way to correct or update that user's personal data provided to us. This can be done on the Account page. If a user no longer desires our service and desires to delete his or her account, please contact us at customer-service@informit.com and we will process the deletion of a user's account.

Choice/Opt-out


Users can always make an informed choice as to whether they should proceed with certain services offered by InformIT. If you choose to remove yourself from our mailing list(s) simply visit the following page and uncheck any communication you no longer want to receive: www.informit.com/u.aspx.

Sale of Personal Information


Pearson does not rent or sell personal information in exchange for any payment of money.

While Pearson does not sell personal information, as defined in Nevada law, Nevada residents may email a request for no sale of their personal information to NevadaDesignatedRequest@pearson.com.

Supplemental Privacy Statement for California Residents


California residents should read our Supplemental privacy statement for California residents in conjunction with this Privacy Notice. The Supplemental privacy statement for California residents explains Pearson's commitment to comply with California law and applies to personal information of California residents collected in connection with this site and the Services.

Sharing and Disclosure


Pearson may disclose personal information, as follows:

  • As required by law.
  • With the consent of the individual (or their parent, if the individual is a minor)
  • In response to a subpoena, court order or legal process, to the extent permitted or required by law
  • To protect the security and safety of individuals, data, assets and systems, consistent with applicable law
  • In connection the sale, joint venture or other transfer of some or all of its company or assets, subject to the provisions of this Privacy Notice
  • To investigate or address actual or suspected fraud or other illegal activities
  • To exercise its legal rights, including enforcement of the Terms of Use for this site or another contract
  • To affiliated Pearson companies and other companies and organizations who perform work for Pearson and are obligated to protect the privacy of personal information consistent with this Privacy Notice
  • To a school, organization, company or government agency, where Pearson collects or processes the personal information in a school setting or on behalf of such organization, company or government agency.

Links


This web site contains links to other sites. Please be aware that we are not responsible for the privacy practices of such other sites. We encourage our users to be aware when they leave our site and to read the privacy statements of each and every web site that collects Personal Information. This privacy statement applies solely to information collected by this web site.

Requests and Contact


Please contact us about this Privacy Notice or if you have any requests or questions relating to the privacy of your personal information.

Changes to this Privacy Notice


We may revise this Privacy Notice through an updated posting. We will identify the effective date of the revision in the posting. Often, updates are made to provide greater clarity or to comply with changes in regulatory requirements. If the updates involve material changes to the collection, protection, use or disclosure of Personal Information, Pearson will provide notice of the change through a conspicuous notice on this site or other appropriate way. Continued use of the site after the effective date of a posted revision evidences acceptance. Please contact us if you have questions or concerns about the Privacy Notice or any objection to any revisions.

Last Update: November 17, 2020