Security Reference Guide

2006 Predictions

Created May 23, 2003.

For the last few years, we have participated in the New Year’s prediction guessing game that seems to infect most every person/site with readers. They are fun, mostly harmless, and sometimes very insightful. So, this year we decided to once again perform the annual tradition. First, we will look at last years predictions, and how we fared. Then we will provide our thoughts as to what this year will bring us.

Last Year's Predictions

• Appliance hacking will be a growing trend this next year. From the already famous iPod to the Xbox and beyond, many of the appliances you bring home have embedded OSs that can be hacked up to do all kinds of things.

This prediction was pretty much dead on. In fact, there now seems to be a die hard group of people that are dedicated to the cause of hacking hardware. From the PSP to the Roomba, any gadget with a chip and some kind of interesting feature is bound to attract a hardware hacker.

• Downloadable movies will grow a lot this year. Sites like StarzMovies.com will start a new trend where you can get a movie at the same cost as your standard blockbuster. To help this along, media centers will also grow in popularity.

As much as I hoped these technology would grow, I really can't say things have evolved that much. Instead, torrents have picked up some speed, as have mail order video rentals. On the flip side, the media center has picked up some popularity, with the Xbox 360 providing the perfect example. You no longer need any understanding of networks or sharing of files, just setup an Xbox 360 and install a couple programs and the rest is taken care of for you.

• Firefox and other alternative browsers will continue to gain ground as administrators and users find Internet Explorer an unacceptable choice.

Firefox is really picking up speed with roughly half of the hardcore internet community using this browser over the IE option (according to geek sites). Who knows what will happen this year!

• Linux and security will be at the very top of the 'most talked about list'. Linux is growing and will continue to do so. And security problems will help push it.

This is almost an unfair prediction. Linux is mainstream and it isn't going to slow down anytime soon. Whole countries have switched to this OS simply because they don't want to be tied to MS or take the chance the US has installed a backdoor. Enough said...

• The obvious: Microsoft will suffer a few black eyes. SCO will finally roll over and give up. Trojans will increase... particularly in the mobile market. Software vendors will get tougher on crackers and hackers. Warez will be pushed further underground. You phone will have MP3, GPS, Internet, email, IM, 802.11 wireless, Bluetooth, SMS, camera, and a partridge on a pear tree.

MS did suffer a few black eyes. SCO almost rolled over. Symbian has been a target of virus writers. Warez is dropping back into the scattered underground and torrents being the standard. Your phone could have all these options, and maybe a few more!

Overall, I think we did pretty well. However, we did not really take a huge risk on most of these predictions. So, this year we will liven things up a bit. Read on to see what is in store for 2006!

This Year’s Predictions

• The release of IE 7 will slow the growth of Firefox because it really will be secure and help users stop spyware, adware, and hacker attacks. Yes, Firefox will remain a steady among the hardcore internet users, but IE 7 will have a few features that will be hard to reproduce.
• Some company is going to attempt to pull a patent trick and experience a seriously negative backlash. I think the world has about had enough of the greedy people who try to patent everything from breathing to the color red. Someone is going to cross the line and find out what the general public can do to the bottom line.
• Security exploits are going to be auctioned off. We saw a hint of this recently on Ebay, but I really thing someone is going to turn this into a business model. iDefense and the like are currently paying for exploits, and they were sold for many millions of dollars. Obviously there is money to be made from buying and selling exploits.
• OSX will fall to hacker attack as never experienced before. This might seem like a "no duh" to some, but OSX is really gaining some ground and this year might be the year Apple gets some egg on their face in addition to MS. They have stepped into the software writing market (iTunes, etc.) and have made some mistakes... so their software is not bullet proof.
• And finally, wireless networking will finally be secured. Oh yeah. This one might raise some cackles, but the stigma related all things 802.11 will eventually fade out and die. We hope we don't overshoot this by a couple years, but only time can tell!

So, there you have it; this year's predictions. We hope you will offer up your own thoughts and comments if for no other reason than to record them and revisit them next year!