Digital Lifestyles Reference Guide

Home Theater and HDTV

Created Aug 27, 2004.

• The hit consumer electronics product of 2005 will be the hard-disk digital video recorder. Look for some units priced as low as $100 (with free onscreen guide), and other units with big (300GB or more) hard disks and dual (or triple) tuners. Also look for an increasing number of combo DVR/DVD recorder units, and for DVRs to be built into some higher-end projection TV sets.
• The success of DVRs notwithstanding, TiVo takes a big hit when DIRECTV ends their relationship (in favor of similar in-house technology); the influx of non-TiVo DVRs also takes a toll.
• Look for most major manufacturers to completely abandon the VHS video recorder market, in favor of DVD and hard disk recorders.
• Larger LCD flat panel displays will eat into the market share of plasma displays. The drawbacks of plasma technology (burn in, short life, excess heat) will also cause consumers to second-guess this technology. That said, look for larger plasma displays (up to 85") to make a positive impact among high-end consumers.
• DLP will continue to rule the microdisplay rear projection market, with Samsung garnering the lion's share of the market — although Sony will continue to hold its own with its line of LCD rear projectors. The big news here is lower prices; expect some 45" models to hit the $1,500 price point.
• With Intel abandoning the technology, LCoS will be dead in the water, Sony's new 70" rear projection model notwithstanding.
• HDTV will continue to be a slow sell. Although lower-priced HDTV sets are a help, the continuing slow roll-out of HD programming is a hindrance.
• That said, as more consumers adopt HDTV, DIRECTV and Dish Network will lose share to cable companies, who offer a broader range of HDTV programming (including HD local channels).
• The all-HDTV satellite service Voom will finally bite the dust in 2005 — or be purchased by DIRECTV or Dish Network.
• Sales of home theater PCs will pick up, but market share will remain small; the technology is still too complex for the average consumer.
• However, expect network media hubs to become more popular as younger consumers desire to share their PC-based digital audio files throughout the entire house — especially in the living room.
• The long-awaited market for interactive TV will continue to be long awaited; as has been proven several times over the past twenty years, watching television is not a participatory activity.